Quarterly Climate Impacts
and Outlook
Great Lakes Region
March 2024
Great Lakes Signicant Events – December 2023 - February 2024
Above-normal temperatures were widespread and
persistent across the basin in December. Green
Bay, Milwaukee, and Muskegon had their warmest
December on record, with most other locaons
across the basin with a top ve warmest December.
Most precipitaon fell as rain instead of snow.
A brief blast of winter weather aected the basin
in mid-January, fueling bier wind chills in the
west and isolated heavy snow in the east. Cold
temperatures lingered for almost 2 weeks, allowing
ice extent on the Great Lakes to reach a season-high
of 18 percent on January 22 before quickly dropping
back to historically low levels in February.
Unseasonable warmth returned basin-wide in February. On February 27, numerous locaons across Michigan had their
earliest 70°F (21.1°C) temperature on record.
The Great Lakes basin had its warmest winter on record. Toronto, Sault-Ste Marie, Sudbury, Parry Sound, Green Bay,
Lansing, and many other cies had their warmest winter on record. Around Lakes Superior and Erie, winter snowfall was
30-60 inches (76-152 cm) below average (or less than 50 percent of average).
Contact: Melissa Widhalm (mwidhalm@purdue.edu)
Average Great Lakes
ice cover from
January 1 to March
12 was the lowest on
record.
Duluth had its 2nd
warmest and 4th least
snowy winter.
Over a dozen tornadoes
touched down in the
Chicago area, northern
Indiana, and Michigan
on February 27.
Back-to-back lake eect snow
events in mid-January dumped
about 80 inches (203.2 cm) of
snow east of Lake Erie.
Syracuse and
Rochester, New York,
had their warmest
winters on record.
Areas around Lake Superior ended
winter in moderate to severe
drought due to a signicant lack of
winter rain and snow.
Regional Climate Overview – December 2023 - February 2024
Winter Temperature
Departure from Normal
Winter Precipitation
Percent of Normal
Precipitaon and temperature normals
based on 1991-2020.
Air Temperature and
Precipitation
December ranged from 3°C (5°F) above
normal in the Ontario basin to more
than 7°C (13°F) above normal in the
Superior basin. January ranged from
near normal in the southern Erie and
Michigan basins to 6°C (11°F) above
normal in the Superior basin. February
ranged from 4°C (5°F) above normal
in the eastern basins to more than 7°C
(13°F) above normal in the western
Superior basin. Winter was 2°C (4°F) to
more than 6°C (11°F) above normal.
All basins but Ontario were dry in
December, with the Great Lakes basin
seeing 76% of average precipitaon.
All basins except Superior were wet in
January, with the overall basin seeing
108% of average. All basins were dry
in February, with Ontario being record
dry and the overall basin seeing 46% of
average. The basin saw 78% of average
for winter, with all basins but Ontario
being dry.
Current Water Levels
Lake
End of Feb 2024
Level Compared to:
Change in Level
from beg. of Dec.
to end of Feb:
Average
for Feb
Feb
2023
2023-24
Change
in Level
Average
Change
in Level
Sup. -4 cm -24 cm -18 cm -19 cm
Mich.-
Huron
+9 cm -2 cm -7 cm -8 cm
Erie +35 cm -5 cm +16 cm +4 cm
Ont. +6 cm -13 cm +27 cm +10 cm
All lakes had end of February water
levels below their levels from last year.
Also, all lakes, except Lake Superior,
were above their average levels for
the end of February. Lakes Superior
and Michigan-Huron experienced a
net decrease in water levels that was
close to their average change from the
beginning of December to the end of
February. In contrast, Lakes Erie and
Ontario experienced above-average
rises in water levels over the same
me horizon due to warm and weer
condions in December and January.
Great Lakes Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2024
hps://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports
Regional Impacts – December 2023 - February 2024
Recreaon: Below-normal snowfall, reduced snowpack, and limited lake
ice had widespread impacts on recreaon and tourism across the basin.
Numerous dog sled races in Michigan and Minnesota were canceled due
to poor trail condions. In Michigan, the Black Lake sturgeon season was
canceled due to marginal ice. Southern Ontario had its worst ice shing
season in decades, and local businesses in New York reported economic
hardships due to low ice cover. Emergency loans were made available to
Michigan businesses impacted by the lack of snowfall.
Agriculture and Ecosystems: Mild winter temperatures resulted in
record to near-record early tapping of maple trees in Michigan, New
York, Ontario, and Wisconsin. Plant phenology was ahead of schedule
basin-wide, creang concerns about the potenal for spring freeze
damage if development stays ahead of schedule in early spring. Black
bears emerged from hibernaon early in Ontario, disrupng residents in
their search for food.
Lake-Eect Snow Events: On January 13, wind gusts up to 68 mph
downed trees and wires and produced a seiche on Lake Erie. An intense
lake-eect snow event ensued through January 15, dumping up to 41
inches (104 cm) of snow east of Lake Erie and up to 22 inches (56 cm)
east of Lake Ontario. Whiteout condions led to a travel ban and the
postponement of a Naonal Football League game. Another storm,
January 16-18, dropped 40-50 inches (102-127 cm) of snow downwind of
Lakes Ontario and Erie. At least three storm-related deaths occurred. In
Rochester, a plane slid o a taxiway amid snowy condions.
Winter Snowfall
Percent of Normal
Lack of snow cover in Minnesota (photo credit:
Minnesota State Climatology Oce)
Regional Outlook – April - June 2024
Temperature and Precipitation
American and Canadian forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures for the
enre Great Lakes basin. The American forecast shows equal chances of below-,
above, and near-normal precipitaon basin-wide. The Canadian forecast shows a
slight chance of below-normal precipitaon in the western poron of the basin.
Wildre
The Naonal Interagency Coordinaon
Center (US) indicates an above-normal
wildre risk around Lake Superior
and west of Lake Michigan in April.
Canadian authories indicate a near-
normal wildre risk.
Great Lakes Water Level Outlook
The March forecast indicates that second quarter (April, May, June) water levels
on Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron will be in their period of seasonal rise.
Lakes Erie and Ontario are forecast to be in their seasonal rise and peak in May.
Water levels typically rise during the spring months due to increased rainfall
and snowmelt runo. In the 2nd quarter of 2024, Lakes Superior, Michigan-
Huron, and Ontario could
have water levels above or
below average, depending
on condions. If weer
(drier) condions occur,
above (below) average
water levels are likely. For
Lake Erie, above-average
water levels will likely
connue in the 2nd quarter
under most scenarios.
Contact: Melissa Widhalm (mwidhalm@purdue.edu)
Partners
Midwestern Regional Climate Center
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Northeast Regional Climate Center
Great Lakes Region State Climatologists
NOAA
NCEI
GLERL
CoastWatch Great Lakes Node
Great Lakes and IL-IN Sea Grant Networks
North Central River Forecast Center
Ohio River Forecast Center
Climate Prediction Center
Ofce for Coastal Management
GLISA
US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District
NIDIS
USDA Midwest Climate Hub
Great Lakes Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2024
hps://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports