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Harry Benson, November 2023 1 www.marriagefoundation.org.uk

What is the Divorce Rate?

Harry Benson, Marriage Foundation

 ‘What is the divorce rate’ is a much harder question to answer than most people realise. Most

commentary refers to divorces in a particular year – the ‘year of divorce’ method. But what we

really want to know is what happens to marriages over time – the ‘year of marriage’ method.

 For years I have been keeping record of divorces by duration of marriage, by commissioning

data specially from the Office for National Statistics. This allows me to map marriages that

ended after – say – 1, 2, or 3 years with the number of marriages that began 1, 2, or 3 years

ago. This means I can track what happens to couples who married in any particular year, which

gives a far better indication of the real trends in divorce.

 Since the 1960s, divorce rates have followed a highly predictable pattern, rising through the

earliest years of marriage, peaking in years 3-7, then falling gradually thereafter. Divorce rates

therefore vary only during the first decade of marriage. After ten years, there is little to no

variation, regardless of which year couples married from 1963 to the present day.

 Divorce rates overall rose for couples marrying in the 1960s, 70s and 80s and then fell for

couples marrying in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. Divorce rates are now back to 1970 levels,

down 21% overall from their peak for 1986 marriages, down 24% for couples in their first

decade of marriage and down 48% for couples in their first 5 years of marriage.

 Most striking of all is that husband-granted divorce rates have barely changed since the 1970s.

Almost all the change has involved wife-granted divorces in their first decade of marriage. This

tells us that long term changes in divorce rate are not about women’s economic independence

(which should mean rates rise) or changes in age or economics (which should affect husband-

and wife-granted divorces equally). Instead, the key driver is men’s commitment. Rising rates of

cohabitation and continuing social pressure to get married in the 1960s and 1970s meant

increasing numbers of women marrying less-committed men. As marriage has become more

optional since the 1990s, men who marry today are increasingly the more committed men who

really want to do so. Hence fewer divorces initiated by women in their first decade of marriage.

 The overall lifetime risk of divorce is now 35%, the same as for couples marrying in 1970, down

from 44% for couples marrying in 1986 who were the cohort with the most divorces ever.

Harry Benson, November 2023 2 www.marriagefoundation.org.uk

How do we calculate divorce rates?

Almost all reporting on ‘divorce rates’ involves

some comparison of the number of divorces in

the most recent year divided by the number of

marriages in the most recent year, or the number

of adults in the population, or the number of

adults who are married. This is called the ‘year of

divorce’ method.

The problem with this method is that we’re not

really comparing like with like. Imagine a simple

scenario where there are 100,000 divorces in two

consecutive years. But in the first year, its mostly

old marriages ending and in the second year, its

mostly younger marriages ending. The headline

‘divorce rate’ would show no change. Yet a great

deal is happening behind the scenes.

What we really want to know is what has already

happened to couples who married in the same

year, whether 1970 or 1980 or 1990. That tells us

the real trend. We also want to know what will

happen to couples who get married this year, on

present trends. This is called the ‘year of

marriage’ method.

The big advantage of the ‘year of marriage’

method is that it should give a really clear

indication of trends in divorce. How are today’s

couples likely to fare, compared to couples who

married in the 1980s or 1990s. The big

disadvantage of this is that it’s much harder to

calculate.

I use much the same method used by the Office

for National Statistics on the rare occasion when

they report ‘year of marriage’ divorce rates. Their

most recent paper on this is from 2012 when

they calculated the lifetime risk of divorce at

42%. This is the figure most often cited in the

media (ONS 2012a).

Because ONS do not routinely publish the data in

sufficient detail, Marriage Foundation has

specially commissioned data on four separate

occasions, including this year (ONS 2012b, 2015,

2019, 2023)

The method used is straightforward enough. I

take the number of divorces involving marriages

under one year and divide by the total number of

marriages that took place last year. I then do the

same for divorces that took place after one to

two years of marriage and divide by the total

number of marriages two years ago.

The method isn’t perfect because of overlap – for

example not all divorces within a year were

marriages that took place last year. But so long as

the changes aren’t too dramatic, the method is

accurate and gives an excellent guide to trends.

Adjusting for overseas weddings

I also make one very important adjustment to the

number of new marriages recorded in any given

year, as the table above shows. The Annual

Passenger Survey produces an estimate of the

number of people returning to the UK after

getting married. Because many or most of these

people will in fact be one half of a returning

couple, I make a conservative adjustment to my

wedding numbers by adding 50% of this estimate

to the figure for England & Wales weddings.

Between 2002 and 2015, some 30-70,000 British

nationals married abroad in each year (adjusted

for England & Wales population). Reducing these

numbers by half adds an average of 12%, ranging

between 6% and 17%, to the total number of

weddings in any of these years (ONS 2008, 2017).

Because these figures are based on relatively

small survey samples, ONS do not adjust their

divorce rate estimates for overseas weddings.

ONS divorce rates will therefore always overstate

the true divorce rate because they underestimate

the number of weddings. I on the other hand

don’t have to be quite so precise. I am therefore

confident that the addition of a conservative

estimate for overseas weddings significantly

improves the quality of all divorce rate estimates.

The consistent pattern of divorce

Using this ‘year of marriage’ method, it is

possible to construct an entire spreadsheet

showing the trends in divorce rates for couples

who marries in any particular year.

The rather messy chart below shows the trend in

annual divorce rates for every cohort of couples

marrying in the years 1985 and 2020.

The purpose of showing this is to illustrate that

there is a very clear trend in divorces as

marriages progress over time. What is striking is

Harry Benson, November 2023 3 www.marriagefoundation.org.uk

the consistency of pattern. No matter which year

we are looking at, divorce risk tends to rise in the

first few years of married life, peak after between

3 and 7 years of marriage, before declining in a

highly predictable trend from about 10 years

onwards. After about 30 years, annual divorce

risk is very low.

Trends in divorce – back to 1970

Most people know that divorce rates have risen

since the 1960s. Few people also know that

divorce rates are now back at 1970 levels.

The chart below illustrates this with a comparison

of what happened to couples who married in

1970, 1986, and 2010.

The blue line shows the actual annual divorce

rate of couples who married in 1970. The green

line shows the actual annual divorce rate of

couples who married in 1986 – the year when

more couples than in any other year went on to

divorce. Finally, the red line shows divorce rates

for couples who married in 2010 – and have

therefore had ten years of divorce data.

Although we can’t be completely sure what will

happen to the remaining 2010 couples, the

pattern of previous years means we can be

confident that their annual divorce rate will trend

slowly down in the same way as for every

previous year group. Their final divorce rate will

therefore be similar to the 1970 couples and well

below that of the 1986 couples.

The first decade of marriage

The two previous charts strongly suggest that the

big changes in divorce rates take place in the first

few years of marriage. So let’s have a look at

what happened to couples in their first, second

and third decades of marriage.

Because the latest divorce figures were reported

in 2021, we have data on the first decade of

marriage for couples who married any time

before 2011. We have data on the second decade

for couples who married any time before 2001

and third decade for couples who married any

time before 1991.

The chart below shows these trends. What is very

clear from the trends shown in the chart below is

how the overall divorce rate for any given year of

marriage depends almost entirely on what

happens to couples in their first decade of

marriage.

The chart shows how the blue line, the divorce

rate during the first decade of marriage, rose

steadily from 8% among couples who married in

the mid-1960s to 23% among couples who

married any time between the mid-1980s and

mid-1990s. Thereafter divorce rates have fallen

back to 1970s levels and currently stand at 17%.

In sharp contrast, divorce rates among couples in

their second or third decade of married life have

remained remarkably consistent and predictable

at 13% during the second decade and 6% during

the third decade.

Of note is the recent upwards blip in early

divorce, about which more later.

The gender gap in divorce rates

Even less known is that up until April 2022 when

the law changed, almost all divorces were initially

petitioned by and finally granted to either

husband or wife.

Harry Benson, November 2023 4 www.marriagefoundation.org.uk

We have produced several papers over the past

decade highlighting the gender gap in divorces

rates accruing to either husband or wife.

The two charts below show the trends in this gap

over time during the first and second decades of

marriage. The first chart shows the rise and fall of

divorce but also highlights that these changes are

driven almost entirely by changes in divorces

granted to wives during that first decade.

Whereas the divorce rate accruing to wives

marrying at any time after 1975 fluctuated within

a 6.7% range from 10.2% to 16.9%, the divorce

rate accruing to husbands fluctuated in a much

lower and narrower 1.7% range between 5.1%

and 6.9%.

During the second decade, fluctuations remained

within a narrow 1.7% range for divorces granted

to wives and 1.3% range for divorces granted to

husbands.

What about the ‘blip in divorce rates?

The most recent ‘year of divorce’ data show a

9.3% increase in divorces from 102,438 to

111,934 in 2021. It is tempting to assume this is a

post-lockdown phenomenon, where couples who

grimly survived the domestic pressures of 2020

lockdown finally gave up on their marriages.

However, the evidence strongly suggests this is a

system issue rather than a divorce rate issue. The

increase is not due to more marriages giving up

but more likely to a clearing of previous backlogs

and/or faster processing of previous delays.

First, Ministry of Justice figures for ‘divorce cases

started’ were falling during 2020 and showed no

indication that there would be a 9% increase in

divorces completed during 2021 (Ministry of

Justice 2023) – see chart below. Second, our own

analysis of survey data showed a reduction, not

increase, in ‘thoughts about divorce’ during

lockdown itself (Benson & McKay 2021). Thirdly,

the ‘blip’ in divorce is evenly spread across all

durations of marriage. The number of divorces by

duration of marriage show a consistent increase

of between 200 and 600 extra divorces during

2021 for every duration of marriage between 2

and 25 years. Had there been a genuine increase

in divorce rates, we should have seen this

concentrated among those vulnerable years 3-7.

Cumulative changes in divorce rates

The next chart shows the cumulative progression

of actual divorce rates over time among different

cohorts. After 30 years of marriage, 35% of

couples who married in 1970 had divorced.

Among the 1980 cohort, 41% had divorced.

Among the 1990 cohort 42% had divorced.

Although the 2000 cohort have only been

married for 20 years, the addition of the highly

predictable divorce rates in years 20-30 mean

that 40% of this cohort are likely to have divorced

within 30 years.

Harry Benson, November 2023 5 www.marriagefoundation.org.uk

Using the same technique, the 2010 cohort

already have lower divorce rates in their first ten

years that makes them look more like the 1970

cohort. A long-range projection for them, albeit

with a slightly higher margin of error, is that 35%

will have divorced within 30 years of marriage,

i.e. by 2040.

Lifetime divorce rates

Continuing this projection over 50 years for all

cohorts who have married since 1963 produces

the following chart.

Overall lifetime divorce rates have risen from

28% among couples marrying in 1963 to peak at

44% among couples marrying in 1986 – the

cohort with the highest ever rates of subsequent

divorce – before falling to the current best

estimate of 35%. The chart also shows the

relative contributions made by divorce granted

either to wives or husbands.

Note that these predictions included a

conservative adjustment estimate for overseas

weddings that are not included in official figures

for weddings but nonetheless contribute to the

real annual number of weddings.

Leaving out this important adjustment, divorce

rates would be proportionately higher, rising

from 28% among 1963 couples to 46% among

1986 couples and falling to the current estimate

of 38%.

References

Benson, H. (2022) Married poor more stable than

unmarried rich. Romford: Marriage Foundation.

Benson, H. & McKay, S. (2021) No ‘divorce boom’ in

sight. Romford: Marriage Foundation.

Ministry of Justice (2023) Family Court Statistics

Quarterly, April to June 2023.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/family-

court-statistics-quarterly-april-to-june-2023

Office for National Statistics (2008) Marriages abroad

2002-2007. Population Trends, 133, 65-70.

Office for National Statistics (2012a) Divorces in

England and Wales: 2011

Office for National Statistics (2012b) Number of

Divorces in England and Wales by duration of marriage

by party to whom granted (husband and wife) and by

previous marital status 1963 to 2010, commissioned

data for Marriage Foundation.

Office for National Statistics (2015) Number of

Divorces in England and Wales by duration of marriage

by party to whom granted (husband and wife) and by

previous marital status 2011, 2012 and 2013

Office for National Statistics (2017) British citizens

married abroad. FOI request

Office for National Statistics (2019) Divorces in

England and Wales by duration of marriage by party to

whom granted (husband and wife) and by previous

marital status, 2010 to 2017

Office for National Statistics (2023) Opposite-sex

divorces in England and Wales by duration of marriage

by party to whom granted (men and women) and by

marital status prior to marriage 2018 to 2021

Tables

Cumulative divorce rates, Overall

by year of marriage & duration of marriage

Actual Actual Predicted

1st 5 2nd 5 1st 10 2nd 10 3rd 10 Lifetime

1965 2% 8% 10% 12% 6% 31%

1970 5% 10% 15% 12% 6% 35%

1975 7% 11% 18% 12% 6% 38%

1980 8% 12% 20% 13% 6% 41%

1985 10% 12% 22% 13% 6% 43%

1990 10% 12% 22% 13% 5% 42%

1995 10% 13% 23% 12% 43%

2000 9% 11% 20% 12% 40%

2005 7% 11% 18% 39%

2010 6% 10% 16% 36%

2015 5% 35%

Latest 5% 11% 18% 13% 6% 35%

1986 10% 13% 23% 13% 6% 44%

vs 1986 -48% -12% -24% -5% -1% -21%

Cumulative divorce rates, by party granted

by year of marriage & duration of marriage

Wife-granted

Husband-granted

Predicted lifetime

1st 10 2nd 10 3rd 10 1st 10 2nd 10 3rd 10 Wife Husband

1965 7% 9% 4% 3% 4% 2% 21% 10%

1970 10% 8% 4% 4% 3% 2% 24% 10%

1975 13% 8% 4% 5% 3% 2% 26% 11%

1980 15% 9% 4% 5% 4% 2% 29% 12%

1985 16% 9% 4% 6% 4% 2% 31% 12%

1990 16% 9% 3% 6% 4% 2% 29% 13%

1995 16% 8% 7% 4% 29% 14%

2000 14% 8% 6% 4% 26% 14%

2005 12% 6% 25% 14%

2010 10% 6% 23% 14%

Latest 11% 8% 3% 7% 5% 2% 22% 13%

1986 17% 9% 4% 6% 4% 2% 31% 13%

vs 1986 -36% -14% -5% +12% +18% +7% -31% +3%